What proportion of persons newly diagnosed with HIV is expected to be recent?
The proportion of newly diagnosed persons with recent infection will vary by population and setting. Published data are only available from a few European countries where an HIV test for recent infection (TRI) has been incorporated into routine HIV case surveillance. In France, 23% of newly diagnosed HIV-positive persons tested recent, with a higher proportion of recent infections among younger age groups and MSM (Semaille, 2008. Euro Surveillance). In the United Kingdom, 15% of newly diagnosed HIV-positive persons tested recent, and higher proportions were observed among newly diagnosed MSM, at 22% (Aghaizu, 2014. Euro Surveillance). Unpublished data from Nicaragua indicate that 13% of persons testing HIV-positive in 205 sites were recently infected using a RTRI and viral load testing in 2018. Although number of newly diagnosed cases should go down, the proportion testing recent may increase over time as we reach epidemic control due to early diagnosis of HIV infection.